Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.068341 23.347232 24.698165 26.237870 27.952061 29.811253 31.992984
2026-01-04 19.779329 21.493661 23.393439 25.676557 28.375984 31.505766 35.470433
2026-01-11 18.892737 20.909007 23.219028 26.103392 29.671521 34.032047 39.919928
2026-01-18 18.116927 20.335313 22.943953 26.302935 30.617346 36.134984 44.029021
2026-01-25 17.201807 19.505061 22.265234 25.901437 30.707563 37.077554 46.633396
2026-02-01 16.402009 18.752834 21.614208 25.456440 30.660546 37.777264 48.922510
2026-02-08 15.469529 17.781927 20.625249 24.491726 29.815261 37.252947 49.259104
2026-02-15 15.251279 17.687956 20.735321 24.968724 30.964377 39.663124 54.500614
2026-02-22 14.964031 17.485943 20.685741 25.213749 31.788374 41.658957 59.394917
2026-03-01 14.359105 16.846212 20.026223 24.571269 31.261203 41.498527 60.453507
2026-03-08 13.429223 15.754477 18.727257 22.975582 29.227687 38.792686 56.495958
2026-03-15 13.199266 15.570002 18.633323 23.072249 29.731763 40.203326 60.462183
2026-03-22 12.928508 15.372125 18.578790 23.321471 30.645070 42.657580 67.613642
2026-03-29 12.422765 14.848064 18.063390 22.884552 30.477518 43.306239 71.390302
2026-04-05 12.225570 14.723828 18.085863 23.230709 31.578621 46.347934 81.575689
2026-04-12 11.987527 14.530277 17.996128 23.394044 32.386145 48.978134 91.994076
2026-04-19 11.620288 14.142263 17.607658 23.065994 32.315672 49.868416 98.125318
2026-04-26 11.268782 13.762449 17.212987 22.701632 32.144381 50.522277 103.914801
2026-05-03 10.815577 13.225996 16.569983 21.908633 31.145539 49.296219 103.178536
2026-05-10 10.725749 13.196044 16.665266 22.301256 32.322973 52.969547 121.504343
2026-05-17 10.588662 13.092878 16.645633 22.502536 33.163929 56.067490 140.711615
2026-05-24 10.266835 12.715490 16.200853 21.974178 32.564949 55.639810 144.237494
2026-05-31 9.748362 12.045460 15.299771 20.653696 30.367408 51.110764 126.564786